ABC 33/40 Weather: Get ready for round 3 of strong storms, possible tornadoes

Approximate severe weather arrival times for central Alabama, Tuesday, April 29, 2014. (NWS Birmingham)

Below is the latest update on the ABC 33/40 Weather Blog regarding the threat of severe weather across central Alabama for the remainder of Tuesday. Bill Murray, 7:56 p.m.So Far So Good:The tornado watch has been canceled for Fayette, Pickens, Walker and Winston Counties. The tornado watch continues for Bibb, Blount, Calhoun, Cherokee, Chilton, Etowah, Greene, Hale, Jefferson, Marengo, Perry, Shelby, St. Clair, Sumter, Talladega and Tuscaloosa Counties 10:00 PM CDT.Showers and storms continue across Central and North Alabama this evening, but they are not severe. The severe threat has not materialized so far because the warm front is having trouble lifting away from the Gulf Coast. While we are not out of the woods yet, it has been just general thunderstorms and rain so far this evening. The heaviest precipitation with some lightning and thunder is over Pickens, Sumter, Greene, southern Tuscaloosa and Bibb Counties. The storm near Carrollton is one of the strongest and will bring heavy rain, frequent lightning and winds that could gust to 50 mph to parts of Lamar, Fayette and Pickens Counties. Areas from Pickensville to Reform will be most affected. A fairly strong storm was over Kemper County MS southeast of DeKalb. It will move northeast into northern Sumter and Greene Counties. Moderate rain with some embedded thunder covers much of Jefferson County. In Northwest Alabama, heavier showers are over northern Marion and southern Franklin Counties. Everything is moving northeast. The environment over Alabama is less unstable tonight so the severe weather threat is marginal. We will be watching for any signs that a storm or two could become severe, but for the most part it will be only lightning, thunder, heavy rain and gusty winds that we will have to worry about. A tornado watch remains in effect until 10 p.m. for much of Central Alabama. In addition to that, a flash flood watch remains in effect for much of the area as well. DAMAGE SURVEYS: The NWS Birmingham surveyed the damage in northern Jefferson County and found that the Kimberly Tornado was an EF1 and the Graysville Tornado was an EF2. ----Weather Alert Desk, 6:01 p.m.Marion, Lamar counties removed from tornado watch list:THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS CANCELLED THE TORNADO WATCH FOR THE FOLLOWING 2 COUNTIES:{} MARION AND LAMAR. THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OFHAMILTONSULLIGENT AND VERNON. TORNADO WATCH 118 REMAINS VALID UNTIL 10 PM CDT TUESDAY NIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING 20 COUNTIES:BIBB, BLOUNT, CHILTON, JEFFERSON, PERRY, SHELBY, ST. CLAIR, TALLADEGA, WALKER, CALHOUN, CHEROKEE, ETOWAH, WINSTON, FAYETTE, GREENE, HALE, MARENGO, PICKENS, SUMTER AND TUSCALOOSA.----Ryan Stinnett, 5:09 p.m.Storms approaching Alabama:Strong and a few locally severe storms are approaching the state line. The storms approaching Lamar, Pickens, and Sumter Counties are just below severe limits and are producing some hail, gusty winds, very heavy rainfall, and frequent lightning. The storms are pulsing up and down in intensity today and are capable of reaching severe limits at any time. The dynamics today do support severe weather. Some good news is the bulk shear values are very high today and that is causing the tops of the storms to get blown off and we are seeing some of the storms collapse some. Updrafts are strong today, and several storms have been rotating, but thankfully no tornadoe warnings have been issued with this activity. These storms will continue to push off to the east and will be affecting Central Alabama through the evening and overnight hours. A tornado watch remains valid until 10 PM this evening for much of the area. Just like we saw yesterday, these storms will be able to intensify rapidly and could produce a few tornadoes. The entire region remains under a flash flood watch until Wednesday morning. Very heavy rainfall and flash flooding are a threat with any storm.----Weather Alert Destk, 3:57 p.m.Tornado Watch issued for much of central and northern Alabama:THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ALABAMA A SMALL PART OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE EFFECTIVE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 3:55 PM UNTIL 10 PM CDT.PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDEA COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF TUSCALOOSA ALABAMA TO 30 MILES NORTHEAST OF GADSDEN ALABAMA. FORPRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS:REMEMBER:{} A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.DISCUSSION:SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE WIND SHIFT ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN MSIN CONJUNCTION WITH AN EJECTING MID-UPPER JET STREAK. RECOVERY FROM THE MORNING MCS HAS BEEN SLOWED BY CONTINUED STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE GULF COASTAND LAPSE RATES ALOFT REMAIN RELATIVELY POOR PER 18Z BMX AND 20Z UAH SOUNDINGS. ADDITIONALLYTHE WIND PROFILES ARE CHARACTERIZED BY MODEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND VERY STRONG SPEED SHEAR ALOFTIN THE ZONE OF POOR LAPSE RATES. THERE ARE A FEW CONCERNS REGARDING ANY HIGHER-END SEVERE WEATHER THREATBUT STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AND/OR EVOLUTION OF STORMS INTO A CLUSTER LATER. A COUPLE OF TORNADOES ARE STILL POSSIBLEALONG WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.ALABAMA COUNTIES AFFECTED INCLUDE THE FOLLOWING:BIBB, BLOUNT, CALHOUN, CHEROKEE, CHILTON, COLBERT, CULLMAN, DEKALB, ETOWAH, FAYETTE, FRANKLIN, GREENE, HALE, JACKSON, JEFFERSON, LAMAR, LAUDERDALE, LAWRENCE, LIMESTONE, MADISON, MARENGO, MARION, MARSHALL, MORGAN, PERRY, PICKENS, SHELBY, ST. CLAIR, SUMTER, TALLADEGA, TUSCALOOSA, WALKER AND WINSTON.THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OFALABASTERALICEVILLEANNISTON BIRMINGHAMBRENTCARROLLTONCENTRECENTREVILLE CLANTONCOLUMBIANADEMOPOLISEUTAWFAYETTEGADSDEN GREENSBOROHALEYVILLEHAMILTONHOOVERJACKSONVILLE JASPERLINDENLIVINGSTONMARIONMOODYMOUNDVILLEONEONTAPELHAMPELL CITYSULLIGENTSYLACAUGATALLADEGATUSCALOOSAUNIONTOWNVERNON AND YORK.----Bill Murray, 2:21 p.m.Get Ready For Round 3:Here is an overview of the southeastern U.S. this afternoon, with the dewpoints prominently displayed and wind arrows to show the low level flow. There has been a lot of discussion about convection along the coast cutting off the return flow of moisture into Central Alabama, but dewpoints are already 63F-67F across the area. The main flow we should be concerned with is the southerly flow over Louisiana. This is bringing rich Theta-E (heat content) air northward into a regional where skies have been sunny. The western extent of last night's outflow boundary that is responsible for this morning's storms along the coast is lifting northward across southern Mississippi and coastal Alabama this afternoon. It intersects developing storms over southwestern Mississippi and northeastern Louisiana. This activity will push east and northeast this afternoon and evening. There is a bit of convective inhibition over Central Alabama right now, which is the "cap" you hear us talk about sometimes. This is acting as a lid on the pot, but it will be gone with a little more sunshine. Speaking of sunshine, it is becoming sunnier by the minute across Central Alabama. And as low level temperatures increase and mid-level temperatures decrease thanks to the approaching trough, the airmass will destabilize further. Already, CAPEs are running 1,000-1,500 j/kg across Central Alabama. and much higher to the southwest where the storms are initiating. One of our key factors to watch is the Lifted Condensation Level, and those values are quite favorable for tornadoes across Alabama. The bulk shear values are better than yesterday, so storm organization will not be a problem. Right now the low level helicity is weak, but this could strengthen as the surface low moves northeastward from western Louisiana. The main storms will reach western Alabama between 3-4 p.m. But additional cells will move up from the southeast, reaching the Birmingham Metro around 4-5 p.m. Those should not be as strong. The main action could reach the Birmingham area between 5-7 p.m. and progress southeast during the evening.