James Spann's weather forecast for race weekend at Talladega (Update)
The latest update from James Spann on the ABC 33/40 Weather Blog concerning the weather for this weekend's NASCAR races at Talladega Superspeedway.Saturday:
Update: Ongoing forecast is on track the dry slot over the western half of Alabama is moving slowly to the eastThe rain should end at the Talladega SuperSpeedway in the 12:00-1:00 time frame and the afternoon should be rain-free, but very cool with temperatures not getting out of the 50s. The Aaron's 312 should be run with no weather issues once the track dries.
Rain will end slowly from west to east during the midday hours as a dry slot moves into Alabama, rotating around a deep, cold core upper low just west of Memphis. Below is the latest high resolution NAM model, valid at 3 p.m. CT tomorrow
It is about that time that the rain should be moving out of Talladega. So, expect a cold rain during the morning hours, with the rain ending sometime in the 1-4 p.m. time frame. Hopefully that will allow enough time for the running of the Aaron's 312. The sun might even break out late tomorrow afternoon around the track.
The day will be cold for May; the high will be only in the low to mid 50s, and that will easily break the old record low maximum temperature for May 4, 60 set in 1967.SUNDAY:
FROST ADVISORY: The National Weather Service has issued a frost advisory for Talladega County from 1 a.m. until 7 a.m. Sunday. Temperatures are expected to fall to the mid 30's across valleys and sheltered locations during those hours.
DEEP UPPER LOW: A cold core upper low will pass right over Central Alabama tomorrow
No doubt showers will form underneath the cold pool, but telling you know the exact start and stop times for the race at Talladega is not possible. Below is the high resolution NAM model output valid at 3 p.m. CT tomorrow
Occasional showers are likely tomorrow, but the rain won't be continuous. So, there is a decent chance they will get the Aaron's 499 in, but rain delays are likely. It will be a day of watching not only the race, but the radar.
Also, it is important to note that the heavier showers tomorrow should produce some hail due to the nature of the very cold air aloft. I doubt if we see much thunder and lightning, but hail is a very real possibility.
And, a cold air funnel is possible in spots. The picture to the right is one from today, captured in Arkansas by @arkansaschasers near Hot Springs..
Cold air funnels tend to form when the surface air is stable, and a cold core upper low is overhead. They rarely touch the ground, and are generally not dangerous.
The weather stays cool tomorrow with a high only in the low to mid 60s.
The ABC 33/40 Weather Team will post updates here throughout the weekend.