Strong Storms Possible Saturday - Dry, Humid, and Hot Sunday
Update 4:30 p.m.:
Saturday afternoon, June 23rd, 2018
Meteorologist: Ryan Stinnett
STORMS, STORMS, AND MORE STORMS: It has been a wet and stormy Saturday morning across North/Central Alabama as several MCSs ride east along a stalled frontal boundary across the Southeast. There have been numerous reports of tree damage and power line damage the last 24 hours, and we are in store for some more storms as we continue through our Saturday afternoon and evening. Also, a NWS survey team has confirmed an EF-0 tornado along HWY 80 in far Northeast Winston Co. The damage was minor (a few downed trees and some tin/roofing peeled back on a couple of barns/sheds).
The SPC continues to have much of North/Central Alabama outlined in a "slight risk" (level 2 out of 5) for severe storms the rest of today. There are additional shower and thunderstorm development expected this afternoon in the I-22/US-280 Corridor from Jasper to Birmingham to Alex City around 2-3 p.m. this afternoon. Like all storms in this unstable environment, they will need to be monitored for the threat of gusty winds.
Later this evening, it appears another complex of storms could develop and push across Central Alabama from west to east in the 5-10 p.m. time frame. The system should weaken after crossing I-65. These storms will be associated with an area of high moisture and strong instability, so severe weather is possible along with heavy rain and dangerous lightning. We must all stay weather aware the rest of the day, and check the blog for the latest updates.
Flash flooding will remain a concern as well for the rest of the day too, especially in locations which have received heavy rainfall already today. Estimated rainfall totals from radar since 1am this morning shows a few spots are showing estimates of 2-4 inches in Jefferson, Walker, Fayette, and Winston Counties.
DRIER TOMORROW: We should finally see the rain and storms wind down as we head into tomorrow. The ridge begins to build back in over the region and that should squash most shower and thunderstorm development, but of course, this time of year we cannot completely rule out a rouge afternoon shower or storm. With the lower threat of rain, we are going to be cranking up the heat, and we should see lower to mid 90s across all of North/Central Alabama tomorrow.
THE WEEK AHEAD: The upper-level ridge should continue to limit rain chances on Monday and Tuesday, but isolated afternoon storms cannot be completely ruled out. Highs these days will range from 91-96°. On Wednesday a trough moves through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley and looks to weaken the ridge a bit. The models show a weak shortwave near the base of the trough over the Tennessee Valley which would lead to enhanced chance of rain and storms for Wednesday through Friday. Highs these days will be in the lower 90s.
TROPICAL OUTLOOK: For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico, tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next five days.
THE ALABAMAWX BEACH FORECAST CENTER: Click here to see the AlabamaWx Beach Forecast Center page.
WORLD TEMPERATURE EXTREMES: Over the last 24 hours, the highest observation outside the U.S. was 118.6F at Sibi, Pakistan. The lowest observation was -98.1F at Dome A, Antarctica.
CONTIGUOUS TEMPERATURE EXTREMES: The highest observation was 121F at Death Valley, CA. The lowest observation was 31F at Leadville, CO.
WEATHER ON THIS DATE IN 1957: A few miles west of Fort Stockton TX, softball size hail injured 21 persons unable to find shelter, mostly farm laborers. Some livestock were killed.
Saturday Morning, June 23rd, 2018
Scott Martin, Meteorologist (Twitter: @ScottMartinWx)
STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY
Another shortwave is expected to move through the northern parts of Mississippi in the form of a MCS during the early morning hours, and rain from that disturbance should move into the northwestern parts of the state by 9:00 AM. That MCS will progress through much of North and Central Alabama through the remainder of the morning and should exit the state by the end of the afternoon. As of 11:30 PM Friday night when I was making this forecast, SPC does not have any of Alabama in a severe storm risk for Saturday. Strong wind gusts, very heavy rainfall, and dangerous cloud-to-ground lightning can be expected with this feature. There is also the possibility of a few isolated flash flood issues due to cell training. Afternoon highs will be in the upper 80s to the mid-90s from north to south. After the MCS moves out of the area, models are keeping the area dry throughout the evening and overnight hours, with lows in the lower to mid-70s.
A DRY BUT STILL HOT AND HUMID ON SUNDAY
Forecast models are keeping the entire day of Sunday dry and hot across Central Alabama. Skies will start off with a mix of sun and clouds, but by the afternoon gets here we'll be mostly sunny. Afternoon highs will be up in the lower to mid-90s with the heat index approaching 100-105 degrees throughout the area. Definitely a day that you will need to take it easy and stay hydrated, especially if you are going to be outside. Lows will be back down in the lower to mid-70s underneath mainly clear skies.
BACK TO THE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN NEXT WEEK
We're back to the repetitive daily forecast for the early summer in Central Alabama... Hot and humid with some sun at times, with the daily afternoon chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Ridging will take over our weather pattern, so those daytime highs will be topping out in the lower to mid-90s throughout the week, with overnight lows in the lower to mid-70s. The chance of rain for any one spot will be around 30% on each day.
AN UPDATE ON THE TROPICS
The North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico is calm at this time, and no new tropical cyclones are expected throughout the next 5 days.
ON THIS DAY IN WEATHER HISTORY
1944 - Four tornadoes killed 153 persons and caused five million dollars damage in Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Maryland. The tornadoes formed during the evening and moved southeast along parallel paths flattening everything in their way. The town of Shinnston WV was leveled, and was left with the majority of the casualties. Until that time it was believed that damaging tornadoes did not travel across mountainous terrain.
1957 - A few miles west of Fort Stockton TX, softball size hail injured 21 persons unable to find shelter, mostly farm laborers. Some livestock were killed.
1987 - A massive hailstorm hit eastern Colorado causing an estimated 60 to 70 million dollars damage. At La Junta, CO, hail as large as softballs caused 37 million dollars damage.