Thursday Morning, June 21st, 2018
Scott Martin, Meteorologist (Twitter: @ScottMartinWx)
THE FIRST DAY OF SUMMER BRINGS SHOWERS & STORMS
An upper low will be working its way through the Mississippi River Valley and moving towards Central Alabama. Along with that, a trough that is associated with the low will make the winds shift out of the southwest allowing warm moist air to advect into the area. Showers and thunderstorms will fire up with the heating of the day, with the main time frame for thunderstorms being 12:00 PM to 10:00 PM. A few of the storms may become strong with gusty winds, but the main threat will be heavy rainfall and dangerous cloud-to-ground lightning. Afternoon highs will be in the mid-80s to the lower 90s from northwest to southeast. Highest rain chances will be most likely north of a line from Demopolis to Clanton to Wedowee, up in the 60-80% range, while south of that chances will be lower in the 40-60% range. Scattered showers and a few storms will continue through the late night and overnight hours, but coverage will be less than during the day. Lows dip down into the upper 60s to the lower 70s.
MORE STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY
As the trough continues to move southward towards Central Alabama, a few impulses will travel through the trough. This will be the catalyst for more showers and thunderstorms mainly during the afternoon and evening hours. Instability values will be higher, along with precipitable water values, means that more stronger storms are possible. Strong downdraft thunderstorm winds, very heavy rainfall, and dangerous cloud-to-ground lightning are the main threats. We may have a few severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings issued during that time frame, so keep checking back on the blog for the latest on updates. Rain chances will be higher in the northern half of the area, but all of Central Alabama will be in the 50-70% range from south to north. Afternoon highs will be up in the upper 80s to the lower 90s. Shower and thunderstorm chances diminish a little for the late night and overnight hours, but all of Central Alabama could still see a few out there. Lows will be in the lower to mid-70s.
THE CENTRAL ALABAMA WEEKEND
The troughing will stay north of the area on Saturday and actually will start to move off to the northeast. While showers and thunderstorms are possible, coverage will be a little less than what we have on Friday. A few storms could become strong, but cloud cover throughout the main heating of the day may limit storm strength. There will be enough instability to fuel storms into the evening hours. Afternoon highs will be in the upper 80s to the lower 90s.
The weather pattern returns back to a more typical pattern that we usually see in Central Alabama in late June. With the heating of the day, instability values will be high enough for development of showers and storms, but as we'll be lacking any forcing, those chances will be very small (roughly 20%). We go back into the over as highs will make it into the lower to mid-90s.
THE START TO NEXT WEEK
We're back to the repetitive daily forecast for the early summer in Central Alabama... Hot and humid with some sun at times, with the daily afternoon chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Afternoon highs will be in the lower to mid-90s through Tuesday, with a few more clouds holding the highs back into the upper 80s to the lower 90s on Wednesday.
AN UPDATE ON THE TROPICS
The North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico is calm at this time, and no new tropical cyclones are expected throughout the next 5 days.
ON THIS DAY IN WEATHER HISTORY
1919 - Seven heavy coach cars of a moving train were picked up and thrown from the tracks by tornado winds. A baggage car was set down thirty feet away from the rest of the train.
1987 - A tornado destroyed 57 mobile homes at the Chateam Estates trailer park northwest of Detroit, MI, killing one person and injuring six others. Total damage was estimated at 1.7 million dollars. Thunderstorms over Lower Michigan also drenched the Saginaw Valley with up to 4.5 inches of rain in less than six hours.
BEACH FORECAST: Get a detailed forecast for the Gulf Coast here.
SEVEN DAY FORECAST: See our seven day forecast for North/Central Alabama here.
Today's Record Temperatures