The Weather Authority | Severe Threat Continues Across Central Alabama

(NWS)

From Scott Martin and the ABC 33/40 Weather Blog:

4:48 P.M.:

We have a few thunderstorm cells out there across parts of the area as of 4:45 pm, with the strongest cell enting the northern parts of Lamar County and the southern parts of Marion County. This storm may be producing some hail at this point, but not large enough to warrant a warning. None of the storms at this point appear to have any rotation on them, but we may have to watch the cell passing over Newbern and about to move over Marion in Perry County.

As the warm front continues to move into the area from the southwest, temperatures have climbed into the mid-70s across that portion of the area, with dewpoints not far behind in the upper 60s to the lower 70s. Instability continues to increase from the west and southwest as CAPE values are topping out at 2,600 J/kg over the western parts of the area. This instability will continue to move eastward across the area throughout the evening hours.

We also continue to have a good amount of shear available for any developing thunderstorms to work off of. Helicity values are running in the 200-550 m2/s2 range from the surface to three kilometers up in the atmosphere. Surface winds also continue to be backed out of the south-southeast to the southeast out ahead of the warm front, while quickly veering out of the southwest at 5,000 feet and greatly increasing in speed.

Significant Tornado Parameter values continue to run quite high throughout the evening, as values are topping out as high as 5.3 over the western parts of the area at 7:00 pm.

If storms can continue to develop in this ripe environment, they will have the potential to go severe rather quickly, as we saw with the earlier Tornado Warning that was out for Chilton, Dallas, and Perry counties.

The good news at this point is that all storms that are out there across the area are below severe limits, and there is really no lightning output from any of them. The individual cells are moving to the northeast at roughly 30-40 MPH.

Continue to stay up-to-date with the AlabamaWx Weather Blog as we’ll have updates throughout the event.

3:49 P.M.:

The tornado warning for south central Chilton County has expired.

3:19 P.M.:

The National Weather Service in Birmingham has issued a

* Tornado Warning for

Northwestern Autauga County in central Alabama

South central Chilton County in central Alabama

Northeastern Dallas County in south central Alabama

* Until 400 PM CST.

* At 319 PM CST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located over Paul M Grist State Park, or near Valley Grande, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARDTornado and quarter size hail.

SOURCERadar indicated rotation.

IMPACTFlying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.

Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely.

* Locations impacted include

Billingsley, Plecher, Vida Junction, Paul M Grist State Park, Valley Creek Junction, Plantersville and Dawson Mill.

2:37 P.M. :

The National Weather Service in Birmingham has issued a

* Tornado Warning for

Southwestern Chilton County in central Alabama

East central Perry County in central Alabama

Northeastern Dallas County in south central Alabama

* Until 330 PM CST.

* At 257 PM CST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located 9 miles southeast of Marion, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARDTornado and quarter size hail.

SOURCERadar indicated rotation.

IMPACTFlying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.

Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely.

* Locations impacted include

Parnell, Paul M Grist State Park, Valley Creek Junction, Plantersville, Suttle and Radford.

Radar at 7:15 AM shows much of the rain activity has moved well into the eastern half of the state, while the coverage is more scattered in nature in the western half. Temperatures are in the mid-50s to the lower 60s across Central Alabama at this point, with the warm spots being Troy, Montgomery, and Tuscaloosa at 61 degrees. Birmingham was at 57 degrees.


ORIGINAL:

TODAY: We have a tricky forecast for today as conditions would support the development of strong to severe thunderstorms during the afternoon and into the early evening hours, but that is conditional on how much can the atmosphere recover from this morning’s storms.

The Storm Prediction Center continues to have much of Central Alabama in the standard Slight Risk of severe storms for today, while the extreme northern parts of the area continue in a Marginal Risk.

The 06z run of the NAM this morning shows that the instability doesn’t really move into the area until after 3:00 pm and dropping as it moves throughout the area. Shear would be the strongest through 9:00 pm with surface winds backing out of the south-southeast then quickly veering to the southwest at 5,000 feet. Significant tornado parameter values start off in the 1.0-3.0 range at 3:00 pm and gradually lowers into the 1.0-2.0 range by midnight.

All of this shows that the ingredients are there for the development of severe storms as we’ll have high shear and a good bit of instability in place. Threats would be from damaging winds, some isolated hail up to quarter size, and one or two tornadoes. The only thing that will be lacking is the forcing to get the convection. The front doesn’t move through tonight until the late night and into the overnight hours, well behind when the atmosphere would be primed. Plus, the front will be weakening and starting to flatten out as it moves into the area.

So once the morning push of showers and storms move through this morning, we’ll have a chance of more showers and thunderstorms through the remainder of the day. Any storms that do form during the afternoon hours has the potential to become strong to severe. Afternoon highs will top out in the lower 60s to the mid-70s. Rain will come to an end later tonight and skies will begin a gradual clearing. Lows will get down into the lower 50s to the mid-60s.

SUNDAY: The weakened cold front has made its way through the area and will stall out to our south and southeast on Sunday, confining showers and storms to the Gulf Coast of Florida and over into Georgia. For us, we’ll have sunny skies and highs will be in the upper 60s to the mid-70s.

MONDAY: The front continues to be stalled out near the Gulf Coast on Monday, keeping the active weather southeast of us, while we will have an overall nice day with mostly sunny skies and highs in the upper 50s to the upper 60s.

TUESDAY: The stalled front finally gets kicked out of here on Tuesday and colder temperatures will start to move into the area. Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy with clearing occurring late in the day. Highs will range from the mid-40s to the upper 50s.

WEDNESDAY: High pressure is just off to our west and this will continue to reinforce the flow of cooler and dry continental air from the north. We’ll have plenty of sunshine on Wednesday with just a few clouds and highs in the lower 40s to the lower 50s.

THURSDAY: With higher pressure sitting over the top of Central Alabama on Thursday, we’ll continue to have dry weather. Skies will be partly cloudy with afternoon highs in the mid-40s to the lower 50s.

FRIDAY: While much of the day on Friday will be dry with mostly cloudy skies, a few scattered showers are possible during the evening and into the overnight hours as another system heads in our direction. Afternoon highs will be in the upper 40s to the upper 50s.

TROPICS: The Atlantic Hurricane Season ended very quietly as of Friday night at 11:59 pm. This will be the last update on the tropics until the start of the season on June 1st, unless we get an rogue off-season cyclone to develop.

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