Saturday afternoon, July 14th, 2018
Meteorologist: Ryan Stinnett (Twitter: @Ryan_Stinnett)
HEAT ADVISORY AND STRONG STORMS: The Heat Advisory has been extended for another day for much of Central Alabama until 9PM this evening. Temperatures in the mid 90s this afternoon with heat indices near 105 degrees, will create a situation in which heat illnesses are possible. Take it easy and drink lots of water.
We have seen a few early morning storms today, but on the radar early this afternoon, we are looking for heat-relief in the form of showers and storms, and not seeing much at the writing of this forecast. However, within the next hour or so, we should see our daily round of storms popping up on the radar and scattered to numerous showers are expected to meander about the Alabama landscape again today. Like any other day, storms will be producing tremendous amounts of lightning, gusty winds, small hail and intense downpours, which could cause isolated flash flooding if you find yourself under one of these slow movers for very long. Also like each day, we should see a majority of the convection begin to wind down once daytime heating is lost. Overnight will be mild and muggy with 70s, and likely areas of patchy fog developing.
USA BRIEF: Hot temperatures across the west coast are forecast through the weekend and into next week. Breezy winds and the dry heat will produce critical fire weather threats for portions of the interior Pacific Northwest. Monsoon moisture in the Four Corners area is forecast to persist through the weekend where locally heavy rain may cause flash flooding, and gusty winds may cause blowing dust.
REMNANTS OF BERYL: An area of low pressure, associated with the remnants of Beryl, is now located about 270 miles north-northwest of Bermuda. Satellite imagery indicates that the associated thunderstorm activity is becoming better organized, and if current trends continue advisories on a subtropical or tropical cyclone could be re-initiated later today. Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
RINSE AND REPEAT FORECAST: For our Sunday, it will be another hot and humid day, and we are expecting scattered to numerous showers and storms. Of course, like today, an early morning shower/storm will be possible, but of course the more widespread coverage will occur during the afternoon and evening hours. Temperatures will once again be in the 90s, and the heat index values will be over 100. It is possible we could see another Heat Advisory issued for tomorrow as heat index values could climb above 105.
THE NEW WORK WEEK: Not much change Monday and Tuesday with a mix of sun and clouds both days and scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, mostly during the afternoon and evening hours. For the latter half of the week, the weather trends drier for the northern half of Alabama as an upper trough forms over the eastern half of the nation. Humidity values should be a tad lower as well. The more widespread scattered showers and storms will be confined to the southern half of the state. Highs will be around seasonal values with upper 80s to lower 90s.
WORLD TEMPERATURE EXTREMES: Over the last 24 hours, the highest observation outside the U.S. was 121.5F at Basrah International Airport, Iraq. The lowest observation was -109.1F at Vostok, Antarctica.
CONTIGUOUS TEMPERATURE EXTREMES: The highest observation was 114F at Death Valley, CA. The lowest observation was 37F at West Yellowstone, MT.
WEATHER ON THIS DATE IN 2005: Death Valley had seven consecutive days (July 14-20) with high temperatures equal to or above 125 degrees.
Original: Saturday Morning, July 14th, 2018
Scott Martin (Twitter: @ScottMartinWx)
HOT, HUMID, SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND
Saturday and Sunday's weather will be pretty similar to what we saw on Thursday and Friday... Oppressive heat and humidity with some sun at times, and your daily dose of mainly afternoon and early evening scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. Each storm will have the potential for very heavy rainfall and plenty of dangerous cloud-to-ground lightning. Afternoon highs will be in the lower to mid-90s throughout the area on both days, with heat index values in the 95-105 degree range. The main window for active storms will be from 1:00 PM to 11:00 PM, with the peak hitting around 3:00 PM to 7:00 PM. With it being the summertime, instability values can rise rather quickly and fall off rather slowly, so storms could occur before the noon hour or linger around until after midnight. Overnight lows will be in the lower to mid-70s.
NO CHANGE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
As you know, the forecast in the summertime will sound like a broken record... and that is the case for the beginning of the next week. Hot and humid with some sun, but much of both days will feature more clouds than sun. Once again, we can expect scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms mainly during the afternoon and early evening hours. As usual, a few could fire up earlier than noon, or linger around into the overnight hours. Highs will be in the lower 90s on Monday, but dropping back into the upper 80s to the lower 90s on Tuesday.
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR FOR WEDNESDAY & THURSDAY
A slight change in the repetitiveness of this forecast, as we will have some slightly drier air move into much of Central Alabama for "Hump Day" and Thursday. This will mean slightly lower humidity levels along with a chance of isolated showers or storms for locations mainly north of the I-20 corridor, while the rest of the area will have the standard chance of scattered showers and storms. Highs will be in the upper 80s to the lower 90s on both days.
BACK TO THE REPETITIVE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY
Hot and humid with a mix of sun and clouds, along with the standard chance of scattered to numerous afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Highs will be in the upper 80s to the lower 90s.
WHEN THUNDER ROARS... GO INDOORS!
If you can hear thunder while outside, you are close enough to the parent thunderstorm to be struck by lightning. Lightning can strike as far as 10 miles from a thunderstorm, and has been recorded at much greater distances as well. Since 1940, lightning has been the number one rated cause in weather-related fatalities... that's over 1,300 deaths more than flooding, and over 1,700 deaths more than tornadoes. We're already at 14 lightning-related deaths in the United States for 2018. One of those deaths happened in Alabama on Thursday. Don't become a statistic... When thunder roars... go indoors!
LOOK BEFORE YOU LOCK
Never leave children, disabled or elderly adults, or pets in parked vehicles. Studies have shown that the temperature inside a parked vehicle can rapidly rise to a dangerous level for children, pets and even adults. Leaving the windows slightly open does not significantly decrease the heating rate. The effects can be more severe on children because their bodies have not developed the ability to efficiently regulate internal temperature. Heat related deaths are preventable, so look before you lock.
AN UPDATE ON THE TROPICS
I really doubt that the remnants of Beryl will reorganize enough to become a tropical depression before moving on out to sea. The NHC is only giving it a 30% chance of becoming a depression within the next 2 days, but it will be over the colder waters of the Northern Atlantic by Sunday, and strengthening will be nearly impossible by that point. The rest of the Atlantic Basin is quiet for now.